Independent research desk
Unofficial Berkshire Hathaway estimate
A two-column estimate of intrinsic value — investments at market plus the equity value of the wholly-owned businesses, less parent bonds. Equity marks are daily session closes, not intraday. Not affiliated with Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Not investment advice. Press M for Letters & Lessons.
Berkshire Desk — one-pager
IV $578.71 / B · Market $497.63 · −14.0% · Printed 2026-10-19
Unofficial two-column SOTP estimate · 15× pretax ops · 8× underwriting · parent bonds deducted · float not deducted · not investment advice · Seeded marks as of 2026-08-21
Unofficial estimate · BRK.B
Seeded · 2026-08-21Estimated intrinsic value per Class B share
Market · BRK.B
$497.63 +0.2%
IV · BRK.A
$868,059
Market · BRK.A
$746,631
Seeded marks. Portfolio values and IV use emergency seed prices (seed table 2026-08-21).
Market is paying roughly 9.3× pretax for the operating businesses after stripping investments and the insurance franchise. Desk default is 15.0×.
Owner metrics · per Class B
Cash / B
$167.81
I&O cash + T-bills net
Float / B
$82.92
Not deducted from IV
Book / B
$349.37
Shareholders’ equity
Look-through / B
$22.73
Annualised after-tax
IV / B
$578.71
Desk estimate
Market / B
$497.63
Daily session mark
Post-13F desk note
What moved · period ended Jun 30, 2026
Filed Aug 14, 2026 · 66d ago · vs Q1 2026
Filing calendar
13F filed Aug 14, 2026 · 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026
Next window ~mid-Nov (period ending Sep 30, 2026)
Largest add was GOOG (increased, 10.2M shares, ~$3.5B at daily marks); largest cut was AAPL (decreased, 72.1M shares, ~−$22.3B). Net notional into the public book was −$20.3B (desk marks × share delta). I&O cash remains $359.2B — for owners, the residual capital story still sits as much in cash and private ops as in any single ticker.
Largest adds / increases
- GOOGincreased$3.5B
17.0M → 27.2M · +59.9% shares
- CBincreased$2.5B
27.0M → 34.2M · +26.8% shares
Largest cuts / exits
- AAPLdecreased−$22.3B
300M → 228M · −24.0% shares
- BACdecreased−$2.9B
530M → 483M · −8.8% shares
- DVAdecreased−$720.6M
33.0M → 28.9M · −12.5% shares
- VRSNdecreased−$421.7M
10.5M → 9.0M · −14.4% shares
Notional uses daily session marks × Δ shares — not 13F period-end prices. Full change log on Equities.
Premium in context
Today’s −14.0% is around the middle of the reconstructed history (range −20.7% to −4.0%, median −14.2%). Reconstructed quarterly series at a constant 15× / 8× policy.
IV at 10×
$507.19
IV at 12×
$535.79
IV at 15×
$578.71
Sum of the parts
Two-column identity. Hover any line for the accounting treatment.
Operating multiple
15.0×
Capitalizes $30.6B of annualized pretax earnings from BNSF, BHE and Manufacturing / Service / Retailing. Buffett’s range is 10–15× pretax.
Insurance franchise
8.0×
After-tax underwriting only. Investment income is the yield on cash and stocks already in column one — capitalizing it would double-count. Insurance engine →
Market cap is −14.0% versus this estimate. Subtracting all GAAP liabilities after capitalizing after-interest earnings would double-count railroad/utility debt, insurance float and deferred tax.
Implied operating multiple
Market residual on non-insurance ops after stripping cash, public stocks, other investments and insurance, adding back parent bonds.
9.3×
- Residual ops value
- $285.7B
- Pretax run-rate
- $30.6B
- Desk multiple
- 15.0×
- Spread vs desk
- -5.7×
- Residual / IV
- +23.1%
The market is capitalizing the operating businesses at a lower multiple than the desk default (15.0×). That is the main source of the current discount.
Look-through earnings
Share of public-portfolio TTM net income plus after-tax ops and underwriting.
$48.7B/ year
- Public look-through
- $16.6B
- Ops after-tax
- $25.2B
- Underwriting after-tax
- $6.9B
- AXP$2.2B
- BAC$1.7B
- AAPL$1.7B
- 8058.T$1.2B
- KO$1.2B
- 8001.T$1.1B
- KHC$911.8M
- CB$753.5M
Cash deployment
Model a use of the cash pile. Buybacks retire B-equivalent shares at the live BRK.B price. Equity purchases swap cash for stocks inside column one. Illustration only — not a recommendation.
Sliders start at zero. Pick a preset or drag to see IV per B and the residual cash.
Buybacks
$0B
Public equities
$0B
Cash left
$359.2B
B shares retired
0
IV / B after
$578.71
Premium after
−14.0%
Sensitivity · earnings × multiple
Shock pretax run-rate and re-capitalize. Market $497.63.
| Earnings | 12× | 15× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|
| -20% | $501.47 −0.8% | $535.79 −7.1% | $570.12 −12.7% |
| -10% | $518.63 −4.0% | $557.25 −10.7% | $595.87 −16.5% |
| Base | $535.79 −7.1% | $578.71 −14.0% | $621.62 −19.9% |
| +10% | $552.96 −10.0% | $600.16 −17.1% | $647.36 −23.1% |
Equity portfolio
13F share counts from EDGAR · Japan stakes from ownership filings · daily session closes where available
AAPL Apple Inc. | 13F | Seed | 228M | $308.69 | −0.8% | $70.4B | 19.6% |
AXP American Express | 13F | Seed | 152M | $334.75 | +1.1% | $50.8B | 14.1% |
KO Coca-Cola Co. | 13F | Seed | 400M | $90.85 | +0.4% | $36.3B | 10.1% |
BAC Bank of America | 13F | Seed | 483M | $61.79 | −0.1% | $29.9B | 8.3% |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A | 13F | Seed | 78.8M | $345.24 | +1.3% | $27.2B | 7.6% |
CVX Chevron Corp. | 13F | Seed | 84.4M | $205.81 | +0.0% | $17.4B | 4.8% |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | 13F | Seed | 265M | $61.53 | +0.0% | $16.3B | 4.5% |
8058.T Mitsubishi Corporation 11.1% of company | Japan | Seed | 445M | ¥4,696 | +1.0% | $13.1B | 3.7% |
MCO Moody's Corp. | 13F | Seed | 24.7M | $502.92 | +0.8% | $12.4B | 3.5% |
CB Chubb Ltd. | 13F | Seed | 34.2M | $341.28 | −0.5% | $11.7B | 3.3% |
8001.T Itochu Corporation 10.2% of company | Japan | Seed | 806M | ¥2,004 | +1.4% | $10.2B | 2.8% |
8031.T Mitsui & Co. 10.8% of company | Japan | Seed | 310M | ¥4,774 | −0.1% | $9.3B | 2.6% |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C | 13F | Seed | 27.2M | $342.23 | +1.2% | $9.3B | 2.6% |
KHC Kraft Heinz Co. | 13F | Seed | 326M | $25.56 | −0.0% | $8.3B | 2.3% |
8053.T Sumitomo Corporation 10.2% of company | Japan | Seed | 622M | ¥1,702 | +1.4% | $6.7B | 1.9% |
8002.T Marubeni Corporation 10.3% of company | Japan | Seed | 175M | ¥4,856 | +1.3% | $5.4B | 1.5% |
DVA DaVita Inc. | 13F | Seed | 28.9M | $174.91 | −0.2% | $5.1B | 1.4% |
DAL Delta Air Lines | 13F | Seed | 57.3M | $82.36 | +1.6% | $4.7B | 1.3% |
SIRI SiriusXM Holdings | 13F | Seed | 125M | $28.67 | +1.0% | $3.6B | 1.0% |
VRSN VeriSign Inc. | 13F | Seed | 9.0M | $279.22 | +0.8% | $2.5B | 0.7% |
KR Kroger Co. | 13F | Seed | 39.0M | $57.78 | +2.6% | $2.3B | 0.6% |
ALLY Ally Financial | 13F | Seed | 27.0M | $42.68 | +0.9% | $1.2B | 0.3% |
LEN Lennar Corp. Class A | 13F | Seed | 13.1M | $86.79 | +1.6% | $1.1B | 0.3% |
LLYVK Liberty Live Series C | 13F | Seed | 10.6M | $105.17 | −0.3% | $1.1B | 0.3% |
NYT New York Times Class A | 13F | Seed | 15.7M | $65.76 | +0.7% | $1.0B | 0.3% |
COF Capital One Financial | 13F | Seed | 3.0M | $217.35 | +2.3% | $652.0M | 0.2% |
LLYVA Liberty Live Series A | 13F | Seed | 5.0M | $101.69 | −0.2% | $507.1M | 0.1% |
NUE Nucor Corp. | 13F | Seed | 1.9M | $242.29 | +0.8% | $450.1M | 0.1% |
LPX Louisiana-Pacific | 13F | Seed | 5.7M | $74.06 | +0.4% | $419.5M | 0.1% |
M Macy's Inc. | 13F | Seed | 7.3M | $22.64 | +0.3% | $166.3M | 0.0% |
OXY ws Occidental warrants | Warrant | Seed | 83.9M | $1.91 | 0.0% | $160.2M | 0.0% |
NVR NVR Inc. | 13F | Seed | 11K | $6,375.64 | +1.2% | $70.8M | 0.0% |
LEN.B Lennar Corp. Class B | 13F | Seed | 298K | $85.11 | +1.5% | $25.4M | 0.0% |
JEF Jefferies Financial | 13F | Seed | 434K | $52.44 | +1.3% | $22.7M | 0.0% |
DHI D.R. Horton | 13F | Seed | 4K | $148.64 | +0.9% | $530K | 0.0% |
IV vs market price
Two-column intrinsic value per BRK.B at a constant 15× pretax / 8× underwriting policy, against the Class B close. History before Q2 2026 is reconstructed. Daily points are recorded in this browser once the desk is open.